Base Weather Flight update Published Aug. 27, 2012 96th Weather Flight EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE, Fla. -- As of 10 a.m. today, Isaac continues to be a tropical storm with sustained winds of 55 kts. However, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is forecasting strengthening to a hurricane with 65 kts of sustained winds within 12 hours. The 10 a.m. position of Isaac is 26.1N, 85.3 W, or about 250 miles south of Apalachicola FL. The present movement of the storm is towards the northwest at 14 mph. Based on the current official NHC forecast track of Isaac, Eglin can expect showers and thunderstorms to become likely later this afternoon, with winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph. During the overnight hours tonight, rainfall coverage and intensity will increase with winds picking up to 30 to 40 mph after midnight. On Tuesday and Tuesday night, expect tropical storm conditions with rain and thunderstorms with periods of locally heavy rain. Based on the current official forecast track of Isaac, we expect the strongest winds of 30 to 35 mph, gusting to 50 mph from Tuesday afternoon till around noon on Wednesday. In the stronger rain bands, higher gusts and small tornadoes are possible, since Eglin will be on the eastern (strongest) side of this geographically large hurricane. The threat of high wind gusts and isolated tornadoes should gradually decrease on Wednesday through Wednesday night as the remnants of Isaac move farther inland. However, periods of rain and thunderstorms are likely to persist into Thursday, with the continued moist, tropical wind flow on the eastern side of Isaac. One of the most significant weather threats of Isaac to this area will be localized flooding, with widespread areas of eight to 12 inches of rainfall from later this afternoon through Wednesday. For storm surge, the latest official forecast for the Okaloosa County Gulf coast is two to four feet. The storm surge levels will be higher if the hurricane takes a more easterly track than is currently forecast. The 96th Test Wing Commander declared "HURCON 3" for the possibility of sustained 50 kt winds by Tuesday. Based on the latest (farther west) forecast track of Isaac, the possibility exists that the HURCON may be canceled. Even if 50 kt sustained winds are not expected for Eglin, Isaac will remain a serious weather situation due to the strong gusty winds, sustained periods of heavy rain, and possibility of tornadoes. The 96th Weather Flight will continue to carefully monitor this significant tropical weather event.