Hurricane season begins: Eglin forecasters gear up

  • Published
  • By Staff Sgt. Mike Meares
  • 96th Air Base Wing Public Affairs
EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE, Fla. -- --  With hot weather's return, once again the Emerald Coast has favorable conditions for breeding beach parties, family vacations and an active hurricane season.

Since the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially opens June 1, Team Eglin members should gear up now for what's expected to be an above average hurricane season, according to a recent advisory issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center.

The NHC is predicting the Atlantic hurricane season to have a 75 percent chance of being an "above average" season. NHC forecasters predict the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will have 13 to 17 named storms. Of these, seven to 10 could become hurricanes and three to five of these could become Category 3 or higher major hurricanes. This contrasts with an "average" Atlantic hurricane season, which brings 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes. A major storm has sustained winds that exceed 111 mph.

That advisory is being taken seriously by Eglin's weather forecasters.

"They are the experts," said Lt. Col. Julie Noto, 46th Weather Squadron commander.
"We look at their predictions and tailor them to our local situation."

The 46th WS forecasters monitor local weather conditions year round to keep base leadership informed regarding atmospheric conditions that could impact Eglin-based operations. This watch becomes particularly important during the six-month hurricane season because of the severe weather conditions generated by a hurricane and the challenges associated with tracking the unpredictable paths of these storms.

"There are a lot of things that go into the formation of a tropical storm and the damage it may cause," said Capt. Chris Chase, 46th WS operations weather flight commander. "We analyze the information and provide it to senior base leadership for them to make an educated decision."

A hurricane is a severe tropical storm, that forms in the southern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico or in the eastern Pacific Ocean between June 1 and November 30. The Eastern Pacific season runs from May 15 through the end of November. Hurricanes need warm tropical oceans, moisture and light winds above them. If the right conditions last long enough, a hurricane can form producing violent winds, large waves, and torrential rains.

While each season's hurricane forecast varies, people should prepare themselves for hurricane season regardless of the forecast's severity.

"While last year was slightly below average, don't focus on the numbers that are being (forecasted)," said Colonel Noto. "It only takes one."

"We don't want to scare people," Captain Chase said. "That doesn't mean there is going to be that one storm. Eighty hurricanes could form this season and never touch land."

"People need to be prepared," Colonel Noto said.

Being prepared is important due to a hurricane's destructive nature. A hurricane's strong winds, heavy rainfall, tornadoes and storm surge can wreak havoc both in coastal areas and further inland. The combination of the elements is the recipe for extreme damage to buildings, trees and cars.

The sustained winds associated with a hurricane can blow out glass windows, uproot trees, take out power lines and remove roofs from houses. Wind speeds of more than 59 mph (50 knots) are likely to cause damage. A tropical storm typically has sustained winds between 39 and 73 mph, while a hurricane has sustained winds more than 73 mph. These winds are strongest near the storm's center or "eye."

As the storm approaches landfall, it can also spawn tornadoes. Although these tornadoes are not as strong as Midwestern tornadoes, they're still deadly. During Hurricane Opal in 1995, one person was killed when a tornado hit Crestview.

If high winds and the possibility of a tornado wasn't enough, heavy rain and flooding are also serious threats, even in weaker storms. A weak, slow moving tropical storm can produce 10 to 15 inches of rain. In the past 30 years, 60 percent of hurricane deaths were due to flooding. Heavy rains can start many hours before a storm hits land.

Hurricane Georges, in September 1998, proved that. Although Eglin did not experience sustained hurricane force winds, this storm dumped 24.24 inches of rain during the storm. This storm also set the base's 24-hour rainfall record at 9.6 inches. Roads in the area were flooded and Crestview was cut off, when the Yellow and Shoal Rivers flooded.

Storm surge is another hazard associated with hurricanes that impacts people living near bodies of water. Storm surge occurs when strong winds push the ocean to form a wall of water. The storm surge may combine with astronomical tides to produce an even higher water level. A strong storm can easily raise the water level 15 feet above normal. Hurricane Camille (1969) produced a 25-foot surge on the Mississippi coast.

The 46th WS will be looking to the tropics for the next storm to form. There are going to keep their eyes on Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dean, Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Noel, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy throughout the 2007 hurricane season.